Turning The Corner
Turning The Corner
Local Analytical Findings from Detroit
Introduction
Turning the Corner (TTC) is a multi-city initiative led by the Urban Institute’s National Neighborhood Indicator Partnership (NNIP), the Funders’ Network’s Federal Reserve-Philanthropy Initiative, and the Kresge Foundation to help communities identify closer-to-real-time patterns of neighborhood change through quantitative and qualitative research.
Local support for this initiative is provided by the Community Foundation for Southeast Michigan, the Hudson-Webber Foundation, and The Skillman Foundation.
If you've already visited before, you can reach the interactive map of the index by clicking in the top right corner at any time!
Our Process
This analysis is the product of both quantitative and qualitative research. D3 conducted an extensive qualitative data collection process, collecting information on beliefs, values, and motivations. Our goal was to identify elements of displacement resulting from neighborhood change (including residents’ perceptions) that may not be readily apparent from quantitative data.
In gathering this information, D3 conducted conversations with over 60 sources using focus groups and one-on-one interviews with resident informants and long-time business owners who were recommended by members of our community advisory group. The topics of these conversations included changes in population, changes in businesses, or changes in the built environment over the past five years, with the goal of establishing which changes were taking place and in what order(s) they occurred. This information informed our quantitative research, as residents often told us of warning signs around neighborhood change that we might not have thought of otherwise.
In the initial stages of D3's quantitative research it became apparent that in order to distinguish between change and transformational change, we needed to limit the sample of census blocks in the analysis (described below). Transformational change is the type of neighborhood change that results in displacement by altering the structure of the community, changing the lives and culture of the people who live there, and possibly increasing the costs of living. This is different from other types of neighborhood change, which can happen every time a neighbor renovates their home or installs a fence.
Exclusion Criteria
During our research, it became clear that some blocks may not have the potential to experience transformational change for a variety of reasons. Areas without residential population have few residents to displace. Areas that are historically economically affluent or that have already experienced transformational change are likewise less likely to experience these changes.
To ensure that all blocks in the dataset were blocks with the potential for transformational change, D3 created the following exclusion criteria to remove blocks from the sample:
1.) Blocks with 5 or fewer residential structures (Motor City Mapping, 2014)
2.) Blocks where fewer than 25% of parcels have a residential structure (Motor City Mapping, 2014)
3.) Blocks where the median home value exceeds $150,000 (American Community Survey, 2011-2015)
All blocks removed from the sample
The home value criterion excludes wealthier single-family neighborhoods such as Indian Village, Palmer Woods, and Sherwood Forest, which have traditionally maintained high rates of home ownership and relatively stable property values.
The exclusion criteria for residential structures excludes many areas that have high rates of commercial property (industrial, office space, and/or businesses) as well as neighborhoods that have gone through intense periods of disinvestment where few residents currently live.
Index Variables
The final Neighborhood Change Index was comprised of five factors, which were created from the variables described in the tables below.
The final index map illustrates (1) which blocks in Detroit are eligible for neighborhood change and (2) which blocks have conditions that make them more likely candidates to experience transformational neighborhood change. Before looking at the full index, let's take a look at each of the factors that we included in the final analysis.
Index Factor #1: Social Advantage
The Social Advantage Index is a measure of neighborhood change because communities with heightened social advantage are more likely to attract near-term investments that could quickly spur transformational change.
Blocks that score low on this index, but are adjacent to neighborhoods with high potential to change, are also particularly vulnerable to displacement as low levels of social advantage could contribute to higher turnover rates. This index incorporates variables that measure residential vacancy, demolitions, tax foreclosures, blight violations, inactive DTE agreements, and water shutoffs.
Index Factor #2: Housing Stability
Neighborhoods with high rates of resident turnover are generally more susceptible to transformational change as there are more opportunities for landlords to increase rents and speculators have more chances to acquire property.
The Housing Stability Index includes variables that measure blight violations, rental properties, number of property sales, and speculator-owned properties.
Index Factor #3: Crime
Blocks with low levels of crime are more likely to undergo neighborhood change when considered in conjunction with the other indexes, particularly as neighborhoods with low levels of crime are more likely to attract investment. The Crime Index assembled for this analysis includes property crime and violent crime.
It’s important to note that crime and perception of safety are two different things. Many residents note that new residents are less likely to talk to others and integrate into a close-knit community.
Index Factor #4: Business
The Business Index includes commercial addresses and vacancies as a proxy for looking at the potential for a neighborhood to experience commercial investments. Concentrated commercial investments in neighborhoods can trigger transformational change for current business owners and community members as new businesses open and new customers begin to frequent neighborhood establishments.
While this index weights neighborhoods connected to commercial corridors more heavily, a significant amount of community advocacy and investment is currently happening in initiatives tied to commercial corridors and this focuses investments that could trigger transformational change on those neighborhoods.
Index Factor #5: Protective Activities
Protective activities indicate confidence in the market through specific investments such as construction permits and buildings protected by alarm systems. These investments are different than other types of investments because they aim to protect the owner from liability and indicate a level of disposable income to reinvest into properties. The Protective Activities Index includes residential addresses, construction permits, and fire calls that were caused by an alarm system or fire detector.
Neighborhood Change Index
What Do the Indices Tell Us About Detroit?
High scores on the Neighborhood Change Index, like in West Village or East Riverfront, show the neighborhoods are not just anecdotally changing, but that they are experiencing a series of factors that are associated with increased likelihood of transformational neighborhood change. In Southwest Detroit, the blocks closer to Clark Park and east – those closer to Corktown – are most densely highlighted in the higher levels of the index.
In the North End study area, the blocks on the west side of Woodward are more concentrated in the higher ends of the Neighborhood Change Index, but there are blocks on both sides of Woodward that have a strong climate for transformational neighborhood change.
Once a neighborhood is identified in the Neighborhood Change Index as having conditions that could be strongly conducive to transformational neighborhood change, the individual indices provide a method for drilling down deeper into the area to better understand what factors may be most likely to contribute toward this change (and toward potential displacement).
For example, the index highlights Warrendale, a neighborhood with a relatively high immigrant population and housing turnover.
For example, many blocks in the North End are highlighted as low crime neighborhoods, which contrasts slightly with perceptions of crime in the community.
Blocks in the North End and Southwest Detroit fall into every quintile on this index, indicating a potential for rapid change in these neighborhoods, since blocks with lower levels of social advantage may be particularly vulnerable to displacement as people choose to relocate to these areas due to their proximity to higher social advantage areas.
Available commercial space in areas of high prestige and lower housing stability could create additional opportunities for commercial investments that do not match the existing fabric of the community
The Protective Activities Index shows that these activities are beginning to trickle through North End, Chadsey-Condon and neighborhoods adjacent to Lafayette Park. Neighborhoods that are highlighted by this index include Greater Downtown, Midtown, West Village, Islandview, and Jefferson Chalmers. This reflects the reputation of those communities.
A low score on the Neighborhood Change Index can be an opportunity for neighborhoods to delve in to the individual indices to better understand how to work to shape perceptions around their community.
Explore the index below!
Click on a census block and explore the data provided.
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